If you’ve spent any time in the motorcoach business, you’ve heard some version of this statement:

“Brokers are ruining the business.”

Usually followed by frustration about thinner margins, price shopping, shrinking leverage, and operators carrying most of the operational risk while someone else controls the booking.

Most operators already know this dynamic.

None of it is new.

What got me thinking differently was an article I recently read about Spotify.

At first glance, music streaming and motorcoach transportation seem unrelated.

But the more I thought about it, the more familiar the pattern felt.

Because the real issue may not simply be:

Who owns the customer relationship?

It may be:

Who controls access to customers?

And in fragmented industries, that question matters.

Because the party controlling access often has the leverage.

The Pattern

Years ago, the music industry controlled distribution.

If you wanted music, you had to go through the industry.

Then streaming arrived.

At first, it looked like a win.

Easier access.

More reach.

Instant availability.

The industry embraced it.

Over time, however, platforms like Spotify increasingly positioned themselves between artists and listeners.

Today, they influence discovery, listener access, and much of the customer relationship.

Artists still create the product.

But many no longer control access to the audience.

That’s why more artists are now investing in direct fan communities, subscriptions, email lists, and other owned channels.

In short:

They’re trying to regain influence over customer access.

That’s what felt familiar.

Because transportation isn’t that different.

How Transportation Got Here

To be fair:

Much of transportation was commoditized long before brokers began to scale nationally.

In many local markets, customers had already learned to compare:

• price

• availability

• equipment

• timing

Buying decisions often became:

Who can do it?

Who has availability?

Who can do it cheapest?

That reality existed long before today’s national booking platforms.

And once anything becomes easier to compare and contrast...

Someone eventually builds a business around simplifying access to it.

Brokers didn’t create this dynamic.

They stepped into it.

More importantly, they solved a problem.

There is no true national motorcoach brand, and while there are some larger multi-market operators, the industry remains highly fragmented.

So when an organization needs transportation in Orlando, Chicago, Dallas, and Phoenix, they face a choice:

Build and manage relationships market by market...

Or work through an intermediary.

That intermediary became the broker.

One point of contact.

One invoice.

One relationship.

And this is where I think many discussions miss an important point:

Brokers didn’t just compress pricing. They expanded access.

That’s why they succeeded.

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Much of the conversation around Spirit Airlines’ collapse has focused on fuel prices, the economy, and the failed merger with JetBlue Airways.

And to be fair, all of those things mattered.

Spirit itself pointed to rising jet fuel prices and instability in the Middle East as part of the pressure the airline was facing.

But after reviewing the company’s filings and restructuring history, it's pretty clear those issues were more like the final blows—not the root cause.

The problems had been building for years.

Much of this becomes clear when reviewing Spirit’s 2025 SEC 10-K filing and January 2026 operating results disclosed in its 8-K filing.

The filings paint a much more complicated picture than simply “fuel prices” or a weak economy.

They show a business that had been dealing with shrinking revenue, grounded aircraft, lease pressure, operational disruption, and tightening financial flexibility long before the latest fuel spike arrived.

Spirit’s collapse was really the result of several pressures hitting the business at the same time:

• shrinking revenue

• high fixed costs

• grounded aircraft

• lease obligations

• labor pressure

• operational disruption

• debt

• and failed strategic options

In many ways, Spirit became a case study in what happens when a company’s business model, cost structure, and operating realities stop lining up.

And there are lessons in that for ground transportation operators too.

The Problems Started Long Before Fuel Spiked

The easy explanation is to say fuel prices killed Spirit.

But the numbers tell a much bigger story.

Revenue dropped from about $4.9 billion in 2024 to about $3.8 billion in 2025 — a decline of nearly 23%.

That’s not just fuel.

That’s a business under real pressure.

Even worse, Spirit was spending about $1.20 for every $1.00 it brought in before interest expense and restructuring costs.

That’s almost impossible to sustain for long.

And while the company cut costs, many major expenses didn’t fall fast enough to keep up with the shrinking business.

Transportation operators understand this very well.

When revenue drops, the bills don’t suddenly disappear.

The payments are still there.

Insurance is still there.

Facilities are still there.

Leases are still there.

Payroll is still there.

That’s where businesses start getting squeezed.

The Fleet Problems Ran Deeper Than Overcapacity

At first glance, Spirit’s fleet problems looked like a simple overcapacity issue.

But the filings point to something more complicated.

Spirit had invested heavily in newer Airbus Neo aircraft that were supposed to improve fuel efficiency and support the airline’s long-term strategy.

Then Pratt & Whitney engine issues began grounding aircraft for extended periods.

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Author’s note: This article builds on themes explored in my Spring and Fall 2025 writing.

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Introduction

Earlier this summer, during a conversation with a respected voice in our industry, I learned something telling: while demand for ground transportation — especially in the bus sector — has largely returned to pre-COVID levels, capacity remains limited due to the consolidation that took place during the pandemic.

That puts many operators in a phase of strong performance, healthy margins, and steady growth. It’s a great place to be… and also the riskiest place to get complacent.

As former UMA President & CEO Vic Parra cautioned in a recent conversation, “demand is still outpacing supply (thanks to COVID!). But you and I know that at some point — in probably the not-too-distant future — that will change, and the equation will shift back to the pre-COVID days. Sales will slow, pricing will move back to the lowest-cost provider, and margins will drop.”

No one can say exactly when that change will come. This year alone, trade policy shifts under President Trump injected uncertainty into an already skittish market, creating a rough spring for stocks before they recovered. Yet trade deals remain unsettled, interest rates are stubbornly high, the job market is cooling, and many small businesses — the category to which most of us belong — are holding off on new investments.

History also reminds us that market turbulence often arrives quickly. Some of the darkest economic days in U.S. history — Black Tuesday in 1929, Black Monday in 1987, the dotcom low in 2002, and the start of the 2008 financial crisis — all came in the fall. But not every downturn waits for autumn. COVID disrupted the market in the spring of 2020 with little warning.

Economic cycles have always followed this truth, famously summarized by economist Herbert Stein:

“If something cannot go on forever, it will stop.”

Or, as Sam Walton reminded us:

“You can't just keep doing what works one time, because everything around you is always changing. To succeed, you have to stay out in front of that change.”

Strong demand and healthy margins may feel lasting, but history tells us they’re temporary by nature. That’s why the operators who take action now will be best positioned when the inevitable shift occurs.

Think of our industry in seasons: COVID was a harsh winter. Recovery brought the warmth of spring. Today, many are enjoying the abundance of summer. But just as the calendar turns, so does the business cycle. Autumn — and eventually winter — will return.

The smartest operators will use this “summer” to prepare now, so when the season changes, they’re ready.

Ten Steps to Future-Proof Your Bus Business Before the Cycle Turns

Good times create the illusion that the cycle has been broken — but history tells us otherwise. The question isn’t if conditions will change, but when. That’s why it’s critical to use today’s strength as a launch pad, not a resting place. The following ten steps are practical ways to prepare your business now, so you’re not caught off guard when the market inevitably shifts.

As Jim Collins wrote in Built to Last:

“The signature of a truly great company is not the absence of difficulty, but the ability to come back from difficult times even stronger than before.”

That mindset is exactly what this list is about — using today’s strong market as the launch pad for long-term resilience.

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